Minor League Baseball Players

2005-06-05T08:08:00.000-07:00

Gio Gonzalez, P White Sox Age 19

I am back, and continuing my review of high school pitchers from last year's draft. Gio Gonzalez was picked in the supplemental first round.

Gonzalez got off to a great start last year. After excelling in rookie league, Gonzalez pitched 41 innings in low A, which is quite rare for a high school pitcher in his first year.

This year Gonzalez is back in low A and doing extremely well:

45.2 IP 29 H 18 BB 71 K 1.77 ERA

comparing this to his low A numbers last year:

41 IP 39 H 20 BB 34 K 3.76 ERA

shows a definite improvement. I think it's fairly likely that Gonzalez will be promoted to high A at some point this season. Gonzalez did miss about 3 weeks this season with a strained side muscle but he has not missed a beat since returning. His last start:

8 IP 1 H 2 BB 9 K

The only question about Gonzalez is that he is not tall ( 5' 11'') and he doesn't throw particularly hard (high 80s-low 90s). Will this affect his durability, and will his relative lack of velocity be an issue at higher levels? Only time will tell, but as long as Gonzalez pitches like he is now, he is someone to be excited about.

2005-04-20T22:59:00.000-07:00

Eric Hurley, P Rangers Age: 19

Eric Hurley was the last pick of the first round. He is a hard-throwing high school pitcher. Hurley's rookie league numbers were OK but not great (44 IP, 51 H, 6 BB and 36 K). Supposedly Hurley's velocity was down a little last year due to being tired.

So far this year Hurley is doing great: 17 IP, 10 H, 3BB, 19 K. On Tuesday he was matched up against Kyle Waldrop and clearly outpitched him. I haen't heard what Hurley's velocity is this year, but so far he is definitely improved from last year.

When I complete my reviews of high school pitchers, I will do a summary, including up-to-date stats.

2005-04-18T05:51:00.000-07:00

Kyle Waldrop, P Twins Age: 19

The twins drafted several high school pitchers this year and Waldrop was drafted highest at pick #25 in the first round. Lat year Waldrop pitched well at stops in both the GCL and the Appalachian league.

This year Waldrop is again pitching well. In two starts, he has the following numbers:

12 IP 7 H 0 ER 1 BB 8K

The only number I would like to see improved on is his strikeouts which are a little low. But 8 baserunners in 12 IP is very nice. 1 BB is also showing good control.

These numbers are consistent with what Waldrop did last year, when he also showed excellent control and good overall numbers, but his strikeout/IP ratio was just a little low (not bad, but it could be higher).

Waldrop is a big guy at 6-5, but he reportedly doesn't throw too hard, topping out in the low 90s. He does have an excellent change-up, though and I like him a lot.

2005-04-16T22:54:00.000-07:00

Scott Elbert, P Dodgers Age: 19

Next up is Scott Elbert who was drafted at pick #17 by the Dodgers. Elbert's numbers last year were not great. Especially bad was that he walked 30 batters in 50 IP. So far in 2005, Elbert has pitched only once. It is a little hard to draw any conclusions from these numbers:

4 IP 1 H, 2 BB, and 3K

It is not a bad start, but I will be watching his walks as the season progresses. Elbert does throw into the mid 90s, so if he can get the walks under control he could be quite good.

2005-04-16T07:19:00.000-07:00

Homer Bailey, P Reds Age: 18

Bailey pitched for the first time this year on Friday night, and it did not go especially well. Here are his numbers:

2 IP, 4 H, 3 ER, 2 BB and 4 K.

The 4 strikeouts are promising, and one start doesn't meen too much, but so far both Bailey and Makr Rogers are being outpitched by the high school pitchers picked below them. We have already seen that Philip Hughes is doing well so far, and my upcoming reports will highlight some high school pitchers who are doing very well.

2005-04-15T14:43:00.000-07:00

Philip Hughes - P, Yankees Age: 18

The second highest high school pitcher picked in the 2004 draft was Homer Bailey of the Reds at pick #7. Bailey has not pitched yet because the Reds are being cautious with him returning from knee surgery. He is supposed to pitch tonight, and if he does I will report on him tomorrow.

In the meantime I will drop down to the next high school pitcher, Philip Hughes who was drafted by the Yankees at #23. Hughes is a big guy (6-5, 220) who also throws into the mid 90s. He has pitched twice so far this year and is off to a pretty good start: 10.1 IP, 8 H, 3 BB, 9 K, 1 ER. Hughes will not turn 19 until June, so he is still quite young. Hughes has good potential if he continues to progress.

2005-04-14T22:14:00.000-07:00

Mark Rogers - P, Brewers Age: 19

Despite the recent Moneyball trend towards college pitchers, there were a lot of interesting high school pitchers drafted in 2004. I am going to spend some time reviewing some of these pitchers, starting with Mark Rogers who was the highest high school pitcher drafted at pick #5.

Despite the high pick, Rogers has been somewhat disappointing so far. Last year his rookie league numbers were quite average: 27 IP, 30 H, 14 BB and 35 K. His strikeout rate was good, but other than that his numbers were quite average.

This year in low-A, Rogers has pitched twice so far. His numbers are: 5.2 IP, 6 H, 6 BB and 5 K.

Obviously it is far too early to draw conclusions, but so far he has been underwhelming. Rogers is a hard thrower with significant upside. He is also from Maine and may develop later than players from warmer climates. However, as we will see with some of my upcoming reviews, there are other high school pitchers who have had more success than Rogers so far.

2005-04-13T22:19:00.000-07:00

Chuck Tiffany - P, Dodgers Age: 20

Chuck Tiffany is having a good start in high A. In two start so far, here are his stats:

10 IP, 7 H, 1 ER, 6 BB, 17 K. What really stands out is the high number of strikeouts. 6 walks is high. Tiffany has walked three batters in each of his two starts so far. This will be something to keep an eye on as the season progresses.

Tiffany is not a flame-thrower, but he does pitch into the low 90s, and he is left-handed which is also a bonus. I like him a lot, especially if he can improve his control a little.

2005-04-12T19:38:00.000-07:00

JD Martin - P, Indians Age: 22

I've been slow getting started this season, but it is time to get rolling. JD Martin is someone I have been watching for a while. In his first season after being drafted out of high school in 2001, he put up great numbers: 46 IP 26H 11BB 72K. The question about Martin, even then, was that he was not a hard thrower.

Martin regressed in 2002 and 2003, and during that time he also had an elbow injury that did not require surgery. Martin pitched slightly better in 2004 at high A, but for someone who was repeating a level his nmbers were very average. Hidden in the numbers, however, is the fact that Martin pitched extremely well in the last month or so of 2004. I don't have the exact numbers, but they were excellent.

I was interested to see how Martin would do this year in AA. His first start yesterday was spectacular, picking up where he left off last year. Here ar his numbers for yeaterday: 8 IP, 1 H, 0 BB and 10 K. I have no idea if Martin will continue to pitch well this year, but based on the end of last year and laast night, he is definitely someone to keep an eye on.

2005-02-25T20:50:00.000-08:00

After a winter hiatus, I will start posting again soon.

2004-11-12T18:09:00.000-08:00

B. J. Upton - SS, Tampa Bay (BA #1) - Age 20

Upton entered 2004 as probably the #2 prospect in baseball behind Joe Mauer. He lived up to those expectations. He played most of the year as a 19-year-old in AAA (he turned 20 on August 21). In AAA, Upton hit .311 with a .411 OBP and 12 HR in 264 AB. His plate discipline was good too, with a BB/K of 42/72.

Upton was then called up to the majors and he held his own. He hit .258 with 4 HR in 159 AB. Upton played at both SS and 3B, and there is talk that he may remain at third. This will lessen his value somewhat, as he will have a higher offensive standard to live up to at third, but wherever he plays, he should be a great player for years to come.

2004-11-10T19:21:00.000-08:00

Felix Hernandez - P, Mariners (BA #1) - Age 18

After pitching extremely well in 2003, I thought Hernandez would struggle when the Mariners pushed him to high A. After all, he only turned 18 in April and the California League is a hitters league. Instead Hernandez dominated. He was later moved to AA, where he also pitched well. His numbers were not as spectacular as before, but when you consider he was an 18-year-old pitching in AA, they are very impressive numbers.

The scary thing is that as good as he is, there are rumors that his best pitch may be a slider that the Mariners have not let him throw yet.

Seemingly, the only thing standing between Hernandez and stardom is an injury, but he will also have to keep his head on straight and continue to concentrate on his pitching. Personally I can't wait to see how he does when he makes it to the majors.

2004-11-09T19:34:00.000-08:00

Merkin Valdez - P, Giants (BA #1) - Age 23

Valdez had an excellent year in 2003 - 119 hits, 49 walks, and 166 strikeouts in 156 IP. The only potential negative that I saw was that Valdez was 21 while pitching in low A in 2003. This is a little older than my ideal age for low A which is 19.

In 2004 Valdez made up for lost time, making it all the way to the majors. However, his time at both AAA and the majors was very limited. Valdez pitched at high A and AA most of the year. He pitched very well in high A, and fairly well in AA.

I suspect Valdez will be passed over as the Giants #1 prospect this year by Matt Cain who is three years younger than Valdez. However, Valdez is still an excellent prospect and has a very bright future.

2004-11-06T21:58:00.000-08:00

Josh Barfield - 2B, Padres (BA #1) - Age 21

Barfield had a great year in 2003. In high A he hit .337 with 16 HR, and an incredible 46 doubles. The only negative was that his strikeouts were a little high (122 in 548 AB) and his walks were just a little low (50).

2004 was not quite as good. Barfield had 521 ABs, and he hit 18HR, which compared well with 2003, but his doubles decreased from 46 to 28. His BB/K was about the same as 2003 (48/119). The one area where Barfield really regressed in 2004 was his average which slipped to .248. If Barfield can bring his average back up, he will become very valuable as a power-hitting middle infielder.

2004-11-05T20:14:00.000-08:00

Blake Hawksworth - P, Cardinals (BA #1) - Age 21

Blake Hawksworth came out of relative obscurity in 2003 to have an excellent year. This vaulted him to the #1 Cardinals prospect. Unfortunately, Hawksworth pitched only twice in 2004. He missed almost the entire season with circulation problems in his shoulder. As far as I know, Hawksworth did not need surgery, but I am not sure about the current state of his health. There is not much more to say than that. If Hawksworth recovers 100%, he is an excellent prospect, but he will need to prove he is healthy first.

2004-11-04T20:17:00.000-08:00

John Van Benschoten - P, Pirates (BA #1) - Age 24

Van Benschoten has put up good numbers throughout his career, but for some reason he does not excite me that much.

In 2004, Van Benschoten had his worst year statistically. In AAA he gave up 135 hits and 48 walks in 131.2 IP, while striking out 101.

Van Benschoten was then called up to the Pirates. With the Pirates, Van Benschoten had a 6.9 ERA in 28.2 IP. He ended the year a week early with shoulder soreness.

Van Benschoten will be 25 in April, so he is not young anymore for a prospect. This is just a hunch, but my feeling is that Van Benschoten will be a decent pitcher, but not a star.

2004-10-31T20:22:00.000-08:00

Cole Hamels - P, Phillies (BA #1) - Age 20

Cole Hamels was drafted in 2002, but he did not make his professional debut until 2003. There were health questions surrounding Hamels due to the fact that he broke his arm in high school, but in 2003 Hamels put those questions to rest by having a spectacular year. Hamels started the year in low A, and in 75 IP gave up only 32H and 25BB. That is 57 baserunners in 75 IP! To go along with that he struck out 115.

Hamels was then promoted to high A. He did not do as well here, but still did well for a 19-year-old. His high A numbers were: 26 IP, 29 H, 14 BB, 32 K.

unfortunately 2004 was almost a lost year for Hamels due to Tendonitis in his elbow. He only pitched 16 innings in high A. When he did pitch he pitched well, giving up 10 hits, and walking only 4 while striking out 24.

The good news for Hamels is that he pitched in the instructional league after the season and appeared healthy. Hopefully this will carry over into 2005 and he can pick up where he left off in 2003.

2004-10-31T15:35:00.000-08:00

Bobby Crosby - SS, Oakland (BA #1) - Age 24

Crosby's career minor league batting average was .305. In 2003 in AAA, he hit .308 with 22 HR, which was by far his best power year.

In 2004, he became the A's SS, replacing Miguel Tejada. On the positive side, he hit 22 HR which is obviously excellent for a rookie SS. On the negative side, his batting average was only .239. He will need to improve his batting average, at least into the .250-.260 range. His history in the minors shows that he should be able to do this, and if he continues to hit over 20HR he will be a very valuable player.

2004-10-31T06:25:00.000-08:00

Dioner Navarro - C, Yankees (BA #1) - Age 20

Navarro had a great year in 2003, and in 2004 he was unable to live up to the expectations that were based on that year. In 2003, Navarro started the year in high-A as a 19 year-old. This made him young for this level (my ideal age for high-A is 20). Navarro did very well, however, hitting .299 with 17 BB, 27K in 197AB. His walks were a little low ( < 10% of AB), but his strikeouts were low too. He only hit 3 HR, but he did hit 16 doubles. Navarro was then moved to AA. Being 19 in AA should be a real challenge, but surprisingly Navarro did even better in AA than he had in high-A. In 208AB he hit .341 with 18BB, 26K, 15 2B and 4HR. Actually his AA numbers are almost identical to his high-A numbers, except he hit for a higher average in AA.

Based on all this, Navarro skyrocketed to the Yankees #1 prospect. Navarro started 2004 in AA where he had finished 2003. His numbers were not as good as the previous year, but if you look closely there were a few encouraging signs:

AB: 255 AVG: .271 2B: 14 HR: 3 BB: 33 K: 44

The obvious stat is that Navarro's average dropped from .341 to .271. His doubles and homer totals were similar, but he had more AB in 2004 (255 vs 208) so his overall power numbers were not as good. One good sign was that his walks/AB went from 18/208 = .09 to 33/255= .13.
This improvement was nice to see. His strikeouts did increase, but his BB/K rate was solid at .75 (in 2003 at AA it was .69, so this number improved in 2004).

Somewhat surprisingly Navarro was promoted to AAA where he had 208 AB. Interestingly this is the exact number of AB Navarro had in AA in 2003, so lets compare:

AA - AB: 208 AVG: .341 OBP .364 2B: 16 3B: 4 HR: 3 BB: 17 K: 27
AAA - AB: 208 AVG: 250 OBP: .316 2B: 8 3B: 2 HR: 1 BB: 14 K: 17

Obviously when looking at average, OBP and power, Navarro clearly took a step back, but his strikeouts descreased and a BB/K of 14/17 is nice to see. Navarro was called up to the Yankees in September where is was 3-7 in very limited at bats.

When the 2005 prospect rankings come out, Navarro will have lost some of his luster, but you have to remember he was a 20-year-old playing in AA and AAA. While his overall numbers were disappointing, he did make some improvement in plate discipline. He will likely be back at AAA this year, where I would like to see some improvement in his power, but I still like Navarro a lot.

2004-10-29T18:32:00.000-07:00

Kazuo Matsui - SS, Mets (BA #1) Age - 29

Normally I wouldn't write about Matsui as I don't consider him a prospect/minor leaguer. But since I am following the Baseball America rankings, I am doing this for completeness.

Matsui was signed by the Mets with a lot of hype, and the Mets even went so far as to move Jose Reyes to 2B, but Matsui mostly failed to live up to that hype.

As it turns out, Reyes and Matsui were rarely healthy at the same time Matsui's defense was disappointing and Reyes will switch back to SS next year with Matsui moving to second.

Offensively Matsui did OK, hitting .272 with 7HR and 14SB. These numbers cannot be called bad, but not what was expected of Matsui.

This is the last time I will write about Kaz Matsui on this site.

2004-10-29T11:04:00.000-07:00

Clint Everts - P, Expos (BA #1) - Age 20

Everts was drafted in 2002, and first pitched in 2003. He got pitched fairly well, despite not pitching until the short-season leagues started in June.

In 2004, Everts started in Low-A where he pitched 26 innings in 2003. He pitched well there and was promoted to High A where he pitched quite well in 20 innings.

unfortunately for Everts, everything is up in the air now, because he had Tommy John surgery in September. He is expected to miss most or all of 2005. The good news is that the success rate for returning from Tommy John surgery seems to be quite good now, so Everts still has a good chance to be successful pitcher, but his development will be delayed by at least 1 year.

2004-10-28T18:21:00.000-07:00

Joe Mauer - C, Twins (BA #1) - Age 21

Joe Mauer entered 2004 as the consensus #1 prospect in baseball. He had hit over .300 every year of his minor league career, and was ready to take over as the Twins catcher. Unfortunately, Mauer hurt his knee the first week of the season, and needed surgery. He came back in early June, but by mid-July his knee was bothering him so he did not play again. Mauer ended up hitting .308 with 6HR in 107 AB, so he did well in his limited time. The key for Mauer will be to get his knee healthy. Mauer should be one of the best catchers in baseball for many years, unless his knee forces him to mover to another position. Wherever he plays, he will be a good player.

2004-10-27T19:39:00.000-07:00

Rickie Weeks - 2b, Brewers (BA #1) - Age 21

Weeks did not have a bad year, but based on the expectations it may have been a little disappointing. His numbers were fairly non-descript (.259 AVG, .366 OBP, 8HR, 55BB, 107K in 479AB).

I am still very optimistic about his future, though. He appears to be a hard worker who wants to get better. See the following recent article about him from Baseball America:

http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/2004afl/041018afl.html

Also, Weeks is currently doing very well on the Arizona Fall League, hitting .373 with 4HR, 10BB and 11K in 51 AB. I look for Weeks to do better in AAA next year, with a good possibility of being called up to the Brewers at some point.

2004-10-26T19:15:00.000-07:00

Edwin Jackson - P, Dodgers (BA #1) Age - 21

Entering 2004, Jackson was one of the best pitching prospects in all of baseball. However, he had a disappointing year in almost every aspect this year. He struggled in spring training, struggled in his starts with the Dodgers and struggled in AAA. The most alarming number was 55 walks in 90 IP.

It is worth remembering that Jackson just turned 21 in September, so he was pitching in AAA and the majors at age 20. Also, Jackson did have some arm soreness during the year. He still remains an excellent prospect, but a little caution flag has been raised. Hopefully Jackson will come back healthy in 2005, and after the learning experience of 2004 will get back on track. Don't forget, many pitchers his age are still in college, so he has plenty of time to recover and become the great pitcher he was expected to be.

2004-10-25T20:37:00.000-07:00

Zack Greinke - P, Royals (BA #1) Age - 21

Now here is a pitcher I really like. Greinke just turned 21 on October 21, and he has already made it to the majors. Before 2004, Greinke's career minor league stats are:

151 IP, 127 H, 21 BB, 121 K

Since I have just reviewed Buchholz and was underwhelmed with his stats, I am going to compare Greinke and Buchholz. Buchholz' stats through 2003 are as follows:

547 IP, 516 H, 161 BB, 437 K

Calculating a couple of ratios we get:

Greinke: H+BB/IP = .98, K/IP = .80, BB/IP = .14
Buchholz: H+BB/IP = 1.23 K/IP = .80 BB/IP = .29

The one area that Greinke was less than dominating was his strikeout rate, and in this stat, he had the identical ratio to Buchholz. However, Greinke gave up fewer hits and fewer walks than Buchholz. Based on this, I like Greinke much better.

Both Greinke and Buchholz started 2004 in AAA. This put Greinke well ahead of Buchholz because Greinke is a full two years younger than Buchholz. As I said before, Buchholz was average in AAA. Greinke only pitched 28 innings in AAA before being called up to the majors. Greinke's stats in the majors were as follows:

148.7 IP, 146H, 26BB, 100K, 3.97 ERA.

These are extremely good numbers for a 20 year-old rookie. In fact, Greinke's numbers in the majors were better than Buchholz' numbers in AAA, while being two years younger than Buchholz.

All this is a very long-winded way of saying that while Buchholz could be a solid pitcher, Greinke could be a great one (barring serious injury of course).

2004-10-25T19:06:00.000-07:00

Taylor Buchholz - P, Astros (BA #1) Age - 23

Before starting my write-up of Buchholz I looked up his career stats prior to 2004. The stats are decent each year, but nothing that would blow you away. Then I looked up his 2004 stats and they are decidedly average: 107H, 29BB, 74K in 98IP. His walks allowed have been reasonably low the last couple of years, and this is something that he has improved on in the last couple of years. But, other than that I don't see much in his numbers.

Now, the scouting reports on Buchholz are very good and he may be one of those pitchers who doesn't dominate in the minors, but becomes a good major league pitcher. I think how much someone likes Buchholz depends how much stock you put in numbers vs scouting reports.

2004-10-24T19:04:00.000-07:00

Jeremy Hermida - OF, Marlins (BA #1) Age - 20

Hermida was drafted in the 1st round in 2002. He had a strange rookie-league season. He hit a disappointing .224 in the GCL. He then was promoted to the more advanced NY Penn League where he hit .319 (although this was in only 47 ABs). After the 2002 season, I read varying opinions about him. Some people thought he had great potential, while others were skeptical.

Hermida proceeded to have a very solid year in 2003. His batting average of .284 doesn't sound great, but his OBP was .387 thanks to 80 BB in 468 AB. Hermida hit only 6 HR, but he had 28 SB.

In 2004, Hermida moved up one level to high A. His BA increased to .297, but is OBP decreased slightly to .377 due to fewer walks (42 in 340 AB). Hermida did increase his power slightly, hitting 10 in fewer ABs than the 6 he hit in 2003. This increase is a good sign for his future power.

Hermida did miss some time in May and June with a hamstring injury which accounts for a slightly lower than normal number of AB, but he had another very good season, and keeps climbing the ladder towards the majors.

2004-10-24T13:41:00.000-07:00

Kyle Sleeth - P, Tigers (BA #1) Age - 22

Sleeth was the 3rd pick in the 2003 draft, but he did not play in 2003, so this year was the first chance to see how he did. Sleeth started the year in high A, and did fairly well there, but did not dominate (68IP, 60H, 18BB, 65K) . Sleeth then moved up to AA where he did deccidedly worse (80IP, 93H, 34BB, 57K). His BB/K rate got significantly worse in AA. Sleeth will be 23 when the 2005 season starts, so I would like to see Sleeth do a little better. I would think that Sleeth will start the year in AA again. Sleeth may be a turn out to be a good pitcher, but I want to see improvement from him next year before I become a believer.

2004-10-23T19:25:00.000-07:00

Chin-Hui Tsao - P, Rockies (BA #1) - Age 23

Rockies pitching prospects have a disadvantage once the make it to the majors, so I really don't follow them too closely. Tsao was dominating as an 18 year-old in 2000, but he had Tommy John surgery in 2001. He came back from that in 2003 to have an excellent year in AA (2.46 ERA, 113 IP, 88H, 26 BB, 125K). He also pitched 43 innings for the Rockies with mixed results. Last year he regressed. He was hurt, and he also pitched at various levels in the minors, again with mixed results. He was back with the Rockies in September pitching in relief. If he can transform himself into a relief pitcher, he could be interesting. But, other than that it's hard for me to get too excited about him while he is with the Rockies.

2004-10-23T18:37:00.000-07:00

Grady Sizemore - OF, Indians (BA #1) - Age 22

Grady Sizemore has always been a good prospect, but he really took off after being traded from the Expos to the Indians a couple of years ago. Sizemore is a good overall athlete who does everything well. His build seems a little slight to me for someone who is 6-2 and 200 pounds. To me he looks a little like Rocco Baldelli physically. I think they could end up being similar players, although to this point, Baldelli has had a little more power and Sizemore has had better plate discipline. It will be interesting to compare these two a few years from now.

Sizemore started 2003 in AAA. He started slowly, partially due to the fact that he lost 15 pounds at the end of spring training with the flu. Sizemore went on to do well at AAA, although he did not completely dominated. He was called up to the Indians in July, and while he had a few good games, he went into a slump and he struggled overall. He was sent back to AAA to play every day, and was recalled in September when the roosters expanded. He did significantly better in his second stint with the Indians which is a good sign.

Sizemore's only weakness is his arm. This seems a bit strange since he had a scholarship to play QB at Washington. It does show that he probably made the right choice in playing baseball. Sizemore is a hard worker and he should have an excellent career.

2004-10-23T16:41:00.000-07:00

Ryan Wagner - RP , Reds (BA #1) - Age 21

After the season he had in 2003, Ryan Wagner's 2004 season was definitely a disappointment. Drafted in 2003, Wagner went almost straight to the majors where he had a 1.66 ERA in 22 IP He also put up great secondary numbers, giving up only 13 hits and 12 walks while striking out 25.

Maybe this raised expectations too much, but Wagner did not pitch as well in 2004. He was sent back to AAA for a stretch, and his numbers there were decent but not dominating. Wagner also ended the season a week early with arm stiffness, but from what I have read it does not appear to be serious. Wagner is still 21, and he is still a closer prospect. He needs to pitch better next year and solidify himself as a set-up man before he moves into the closer role.

2004-10-23T15:04:00.000-07:00

Jeremy Reed - OF, Seattle (BA #1 - White Sox) Age 24

Reed was the White Sox #1 prospect last year. He was traded to Seattle in the Freddy Garcia trade. He got 58 AB with the Mariners late in the year, and he hit .397. 58 AB is too small a sample to get excited about, but the early results are promising. Reed has a history of hitting for a good average with great plate discipline. Most years he was walked more than he struck out, which is great. He will hit a few home runs, but will probably never be a big power hitter. Considering he plays CF, that is OK. He should be the staring center fielder for the rebuilding Mariners next year.

2004-10-22T19:38:00.000-07:00

Angel Guzman - P, Cubs (BA #1)

Angel Guzman is an excellent prospect when healthy. His career ERA though 2003 is 2.33. However, Guzman hurt his shoulder in 2003, and I am not sure he is fully healthy yet. In 2004 he pitched only 37.2 innings, with the worst results of his career so far. Shoulder injuries worry me, so I would not get too excited about Guzman until he proves he is healthy again.

2004-10-22T19:06:00.000-07:00

Hanley Ramirez - SS, Red Sox (BA #1)

Hanley Ramirez has had an interesting career. He burst onto the scene in 2002 with a great rookie league season. However his follow-up season was a mild disappointment. He did hit .275, but he did not walk a lot, so his OBP was only .327. He did steal 36 bases, which was a bright spot, and he hit 8 HR. The most disappointing aspect of his 2003 season was that he was suspended at one point for unprofessional conduct. Ramirez remained the Red Sox #1 prospect entering 2004, partly due to a fairly week Red Sox system.

In 2004, Ramirez rebounded nicely to validate his ranking. He played at both the high A and AA levels, hitting exactly .310 at each stop. His season combined total was 15 doubles 6 triples and 6 HR in 368 AB. He also had 24 SB. Not great power numbers, but a very solid season. Also there was no sign of behavioral problems which is a big positive. Best of all, Nomar is no longer blocking him in Boston. I would imagine that Ramirez will start the year in AAA, and will make the majors sometime this year if he does well.

2004-10-21T20:56:00.000-07:00

Adam Loewen - P, Orioles (BA #1)

Loewen's first full season has to be considered disappointing. Loewen was the Orioles 1st round pick (4th overall) in 2002, but he did not sign. Instead he went to a JC, where the Orioles retained his rights. He did sign eventually and he pitched a few innings in 2003. 2004 was his first real test, and the results were not what I expected. Even worse, Loewen now has a Labrum injury. I'm not sure if he needs surgery, but shoulder injuries are never good. Looking at Loewen's numbers, he walked 58 hitters in 85.1 IP. This is way too high and must be improved. He did have 82 strikeouts which is promising. Loewen needs to get healthy and then pitch well before he can be considered anything but a question mark.

2004-10-21T20:03:00.000-07:00

Andy Marte - 3B, Atlanta (BA #1)

Marte has been considered one of the top minor league third basemen, along with David Wright. Wright jumped ahead this year, proving himself at the major league level, but Marte is still a top prospect and I believe he will be the Braves #1 prospect. In AA Marte hit 23 HR in 387 AB which is great. In past years, Marte has hit in the .280 range. This year he was just below that at .269, but he walked a lot so his OBP was a very respectable .364. Best of all, Marte did not turn 21 until today (Happy Birthday!), so he will be at AAA next year as a 21-year-old. He just needs to keep progressing and he will have a great career ahead of him.

2004-10-21T19:46:00.000-07:00

Scott Hairston - 2B, Arizona (BA #1)

Like Kotchman, Scott Hairston also made it to the majors this year. Hairston and Kotchman were drafted in the same year (2001), but Hairston is 3 years older than Kotchman. At 24, Hairston would be expected to be ready for the majors at this point. Hairston got 339 AB with Arizona, so he loses his minor league status and is officially a major leaguer. Hairston's average wasn't great (.248) but he hit 13 HR, which is very impressive for a rookie middle infielder. If Hairston can get his average into the .280 range and continue to hit for power he would be one of the better offensive second basemen. From what I have read his defense is not great, but if it is good enough to stay at 2B he could be very valuable.

2004-10-21T19:27:00.000-07:00

Casey Kotchman - 1B, Angels (BA #1)

This past season Kotchman went through AA, and AAA all the way to the majors where he got 116 AB. He didn't hit well (.224 AVG), but he got his feet wet. He did hit in AA and AAA, hitting well over .300 at both levels. He doesn't strike out much, but I think his power will be below average for a first baseman. I see his potential to be a Mark Grace type player. He will almost be certainly be replaced as the Angels #1 prospect by Dallas McPherson, but I still like Kotchman. He does have to stay healthy because he has had some injuries in the past, but given a chance to play I think he will be a very good player.

2004-10-21T19:22:00.000-07:00

I'm Back

To get focused again, I am going to start reviewing how players did last year and if their prospect status has changed. I am going to start by doing all the #1 prospects as ranked by Baseball America last year. Then I will to #2s, etc. I'll keep going as long as I have time.

2004-08-30T18:34:00.000-07:00

Jason Kubel - OF, Twins

Jason Kubel has been called up by the Twins. Kubel has been a prospect I have really liked for a couple of years, but he didn't seem to get a lot of publicity until this year. The reason I liked him is he consistently hit .300 with good plate discipline. Here are some his career numbers:

Year: 2000 league: GCL AB: 78 AVG: .282 HR: 0 BB: 10 K: 9
Year: 2001 league: GCL AB: 124 AVG: .331 HR: 1 BB: 19 K: 14
Year: 2002 league: Mid AB: 424 AVG: .321 HR: 17 BB: 41 K: 48
Year: 2003 league: FSL AB: 420 AVG: .298 HR: 5 BB: 48 K:54

The only real blip in these stats is that Kubel spent 2 years in the GCL. He did not hit for a lot of power, but he did hit 17 HR in 2002. The really good thing was a good average and a low number of strikouts. His BB/K rate has always been excellent, due more to a low strikeout rate rather than a lot of walks. All this was a prelude to this year when Kubel exploded to start the season and never slowed down. Kubel started this year in AA where he hit .377 with 6 HR in 138 AB. He also walked 19 times and struck out 19 times, continuing his good plate discipline.

Kubel was then promoted to AAA where he didn't miss a beat. In 350 AB, he hit .343 with 16 HR, 34BB and 40K. And, to add something new to his game Kubel stole 16 bases in AAA. Realistically though, speed is not Kubel's strength. He does have a good arm, so he can play right field. Given the Twins history with young players and their crowded outfield situation, I don't expect Kubel to get regular at bats this year. What will be interesting is if they make room for him to play every day next year. I definitely think he has proven he is ready for the chance to play every day.

2004-08-14T07:16:00.000-07:00

Ryan Sweeney - OF, White Sox

After not posting anything in over a month, I am going to try to start posting more regularly. Right now I am going to talk about Ryan Sweeney. On the surface, Sweeney's stats this year look somewhat non-descript: Here a re his stats from High-A.

AB: 442 AVG: .276 OBP: .332 2B: 19 3B: 3 HR: 5 BB: 31 K: 58 SB: 6

You have to remember, though, that Sweeny is 19 and he skipped low-A. He had a great spring training, hitting well in major league games, and the White Sox decided he should skip a level. Sweeney struggled early, hitting less than .220 for a while. He has gradually improved over the course of the season. His walks are a little low, but not disastrous. Also, his BB/K rate could be better, but is not bad. Although Sweeney has held his own, I think the White Sox should have started him at low-A. I still have high hopes for Sweeney. I am assuming he has done enough this year to start next year in AA when he will be 20.

2004-07-09T13:03:00.000-07:00

Marcos Vechionacci - 3B, Yankees

It's been a while since I've posted anything, but I have another player I am excited about. He is 17 years old, and his numbers are great so far. Vechionacci started this year in the GCL, but stayed there only a couple of weeks. While there here were his stats:

AB: 49 AVG: .408 OBP: .463 2B: 6 3B: 0 HR: 1 BB: 5 K: 9

Those are impressive numbers for 1 17 year-old, and at this point Vechionacci was promoted to the NY Penn League, which is a short-season A league comprised of many former college players. In 4 games so far here are his stats in the NY Penn League:

AB: 16 AVG: .500 OBP: .579 2B: 1 3B: 0 HR: 0 BB: 3 K: 0

Also, earlier in the year Vechionacci played one game in the FSL and was 1-4.

I don't know much else about Vechionacci, and his stats are a small sample. But, given his age I think he is worth following closely.

2004-06-30T21:00:00.000-07:00

Jeremy Brown - C, As

Jeremy Brown may be the most famous of the original Moneyball players, as he was heavily featured in that book. His career has been a disappointment so far, however.

After Brown's first year, I was a big fan of his. He got most of his at-bats in the California League, where he hit .310 with an OBP of .444. He hit 10 HR and had 40 BB and 44 K in 187 AB.

Last year he moved up to AA, and things began to deteriorate slightly. He had slightly more AB (233) and hit fewer HR (10). His BB/K ratio was still good at 37/41, but his average dipped to .275. The high number of walks did help his OBP reach .388 however.

So far this year, things are getting worse still. He is back at AA. I would expect to see some improvement over last year, but he is going in the opposite direction. After 218 AB (almost the same number as last year), he is hitting .220 with only 3 HR. Again is B/K ratio is still pretty good at 32/43, but I just don't like the direction his numbers are going.

I think Brown needs to get things turned around if he wants to be a Moneyball success story.

2004-06-28T18:43:00.000-07:00

Felix Hernandez - P, Mariners
Greg Miller - P, Dodgers

Felix Hernandez has just been promoted to AA. This is a bold move to put an 18-year-old in AA, but Hernandez pitched extremely well in high A. I think an interesting comparison would be between Hernandez and Greg Miller of the Dodgers. Miller also started last year in high A at age 18 and was promoted to AA at mid-season.

Before I get to the numbers, I should point out a couple of things. First, when comparing numbers, keep in mind that Miller was pitching in the Florida State League which is a notorious pitchers league, and Hernandez was pitching in the California League which is a hitters league. Also, when Miller started last year in high A he had been 18 since the previous November. Hernandez turned 18 this April. So when staring in high A, Hernandez was about 5 months younger than Miller. Not a big deal, but worth mentioning. Of course, I have more confidence that Miller's age is accurate than I do for Hernandez. With that said, here are Miller's high A numbers from last year and Hernandez' number for this year.

Miller : IP: 116, ERA: 2.49 H: 103 BB: 41 K: 111 H+BB/IP: 1.24 K/IP: .96
Hernandez: IP: 92, ERA: 2.74 H: 85 BB: 26 K: 114 H+BB/IP: 1.21 K/IP: 1.24

If you look at the ratios, Hernandez' numbers are better than Miller's were, especially when you factor in the leagues they each played in. Now, when Miller was promoted to AA he put up exceptional numbers, even better than before he was promoted. I will be watching Hernandez closely to see how he does in AA. Unfortunately Miller has been hurt and he has not pitched yet this year. It does not appear to be a long-term concern, but the Dodgers are obviously being cautious with him. Hopefully Hernandez will stay healthy, and I will be able to compare these two again. I think you could make the case that they could be the two best pitching prospects in baseball if they stay healthy.

2004-06-27T15:27:00.000-07:00

Bucky Jacobsen - DH/1B, Mariners

Bucky Jacobsen is not a traditional prospect because he is 28 years-old. I usually don't pay much attention to this type of player, but Jacobsen is having a great year at AAA. He has hit 24 HR and 20 doubles. He is also hitting .331 with an OBP of .423. His strikeouts are a little high at 71, especially for an older player.

Seattle may be a team in a transition in the next year, so there will likely be some open positions. Will they give Jacobsen a chance, or will he become stuck as a good AAA player and a major league backup? One problem for him to overcome is that he is mostly a DH, which limits the positions he can play.

Jacobsen is not the type of player I take an interest in, but I know some people like to take a chance on this type if player.

2004-06-26T13:54:00.000-07:00

Site Update

I have added a link to my message board.

2004-06-25T06:55:00.000-07:00

Carlos Gomez - OF, Mets

Carlos Gomez is playing for Kingsport in the Appalachian League. He is 18 years-old and he is off to a good start. He is hitting .333 with a double, triple, and HR. There is some confusion about his age. On the Kingsport roster on minorleaguebaseball.com he is listed as age 22. However, on a Mets fan site that has been following him closely, he is listed as age 18. Here is the link:

Carlos Gomez

Obviously, at this stage of his career, a 4 year age difference is huge, and if he does end up being 22 I will lose interest in him. However, he looks much closer to 18 than 22, so I will assume 18 is the correct age.

There is always a risk with Latin-American players (especially the Dominican Republic)that they are older than their listed age. It is just a risk you have to accept if you use age as a major criteria in picking prospects.

2004-06-25T06:53:00.000-07:00

Feature Update

I am adding a message board to this site for anyone who wants to discuss minor leaguers. I have created it, and I will probably add a link to it sometime this weekend.

2004-06-24T20:52:00.000-07:00

Jesus Guzman - 3B, Mariners

Jesus Guzman is an interesting player. He just turned 20 on June 14th, so he has been playing for a while as a 19-year-old in the high A California League, and posting good numbers. Guzman played in the Venezuelan League in 2003, and started the season in extended spring training. I am assuming he was headed for a rookie league, but when Inland Empire had injuries to several infielders, he was brought up. I imagine this was meant as only a short-term stay for Guzman, but he has played so well it was hard for the Mariners to send him down.

His stats this season are as follows:

AB: 182: AVG: .297 OBP: .402 2B: 14 3B: 1 HR: 3 BB: 28 K: 47 SB: 5

These are excellent numbers for a 19-year-old straight from the Venezuelan League. If he remains at 3B, it will be more important for him to show a little power, but he has a fairly high number of doubles which is a good sign. He definitely is someone to watch.

2004-06-23T20:38:00.000-07:00

Lou Palmisano - C, Brewers

Lou Palmisano is a player I was looking at closely this spring. He is supposed to be a good defensive catcher, and these are his numbers from last year:

AB AVG OBP 2B 3B HR BB K
174 .391 .458 13 2 6 18 29

My only concern about him was that he was playing in the Pioneer League at age 21, which I consider just a little old for that league. So, I was very interested to see how he did this year. He is playing in the Midwest League. Here are his numbers so far:

AB AVG OBP 2B 3B HR BB K
227 .308 .388 12 2 3 22 52

For the most part Palmisano's numbers are not as good as last year. His walk rate is about the same (.1 BB/AB), but his strikeouts are up a little and his power is slightly down. His average is good, but not as good as last year. Again, the biggest negative is that he is a little old for the Midwest League at age 22. At that age, I would either like to see him in High-A, or putting up better numbers in Low A. His year so far is a slight disappointment, but by no means a bust.

2004-06-21T20:51:00.000-07:00

Luis Soto - SS, Red Sox
Juan Rivera - SS, Dodgers

Here is a quick update on Soto and Rivera. They are both playing in the GCL. The GCL games started today. Soto was 0-4 and Rivera was 2-5 with a double.

By the way, so far I have only been able to find the GCL box scores at espn.com. Generally I think that minorleaguebaseabll.com gets box scores the fastest, but not so far with the GCL.

2004-06-20T18:24:00.000-07:00

New Feature

I have added comments. You can now add a comment to anything I write, but you must be a registered user.

2004-06-20T15:07:00.000-07:00

Asdrubal Cabrera - SS, Mariners
Luis Soto - SS, Red Sox
Juan Rivera - SS, Dodgers

One thing that I find fun this time of year, is looking for very young players in the rookie and short-season leagues. I play in a fantasy league with 20 player minor league rosters and many owners who follow minor leaguers closely, so almost every god minor leaguer at higher levels is already taken. I try to find players before anyone has heard if them. It is a high risk strategy, but last year this strategy yielded Felix Hernandez. (Note to all Donut League owners, I have already picked up all these players, so you are out of look.)

I don't know much at all about any of these players, but they are worth following to see if they pan out. Here is what I know about each of these players:

Asdrubal Cabrera - I came across this name while I was looking for young players in the Northwest League. Cabrera is a Venezuelan playing for Everett. His birthdate is 11/13/1985 which means he will be 18 for this entire season. Cabrera is playing in the Northwest League which is a short-season A league. Teams tend to send college players to the NW League, so the average age is higher than the rookie leagues. Anytime an 18-year-old succeeds in the NW League, he should be noticed. Anyway, Cabrera has played two games so far, and here are his numbers:

Game 1 (6/18): 2-4, 2B, 0 BB, 0 K
Game 2 (6/19): 3-4, 3B, 0 BB, 0 K

So, after two games he is hitting .625 with a double and triple. Obviously two games is way too small a sample to mean anything, but if you are interested in a deep sleeper check him out.

Luis Soto - Soto hasn't played yet. I am assuming he will be in the Gulf Coast League, but I have not found the GCL rosters yet. Despite not playing yet, Soto did make the Baseball America top 30 for the Red Sox this year, ranking 22. Soto is a Dominican whose birthdate is 12/7/85, almost the same age as Cabrera. According to BA, Soto has strong physical tools, and a mature approach. Hopefully Soto will be in the GCL, so I can follow him once the games start.

Luis Rivera - Rivera seems to be the biggest gamble of all. Rivera was born on 3/17/87, so he turned 17 this spring. He did, however, rank #28 for the Dodgers in BA. Like Soto, Rivera is also from the Dominican Republic. He was signed by the same scout that signed Rafael Furcal. My guess is he will currently be more advanced defensively than offensively, and I am not even sure that he will be in the GCL.

There are no guarantees with any of these players. There ages may not even be accurate, but I will have fun following them and even if one of the three becomes a good prospect, I will be happy.

2004-06-19T10:00:00.000-07:00

Dallas McPherson - 3B, Angels
David Wright - 3B, Mets
Andy Marte - 3B, Braves

Now that David Wright has been promote to AAA, I thought it would be a good time to compare some of the top third basemen who are closer to the majors.

Here are the stats so far this year for these three:

Name Age Level AB AVG OBP 2B 3B HR BB K SB
McPherson 23 AA 258 .322 .406 17 6 20 34 72 6
Wright 21 AA 223 .363 .467 27 0 10 39 41 20
Marte 20 AA 201 .264 .338 18 1 11 21 62 0

All three have put up numbers, but you also have to consider their ages while playing at the same level. McPherson has put up the best power numbers, but he is two years older than Wright and three years older than Marte. Wright has shown the best plate discipline. Also, from what I have read, Wright is the best defensively. Another positive for Wright is 20 SB. He is not supposed to be particularly fast, but has a knack for stealing bases. I don't expect him to steal a lot of bases in the majors, but he probably will steal more than the average thirdbaseman.

Out of these three prospects, I like Wright the best, followed closely by Marte, then McPherson. I'm sure some people like Marte the best, and he may have a higher upside than Wright, but I feel Wright is the more complete player.

2004-06-16T20:32:00.000-07:00

Matt Cain - P, Giants

Matt Cain has just been promoted from High A to AA. Cain is 19 and will not turn 20 until October, so he is definitely on the fast track now.

Cain's numbers in the California League were excellent, so he definitely deserved the promotion. Here are his stats for this year:

IP: 72.2, ERA: 1.86 H: 58, BB: 17, K: 89

Cain throws hard and has a good curveball, so he has a lot of potential. I always find mid-season promotions interesting. It is a challenge for the player, and it shows whether they were really ready to move up. I will be very interested to see how Cain does. If he does well in AA at age 19, his future could be very bright.

2004-06-15T18:56:00.000-07:00

Conor Jackson - OF, Diamondbacks
Carlos Quentin - OF, Diamondbacks
Jamie D'Antona - 3B, Diamondbacks

It looks like Arizona had a really good draft last year. Jackson and Quentin were 1st round picks (19 and 29 respectively) and D'Antona was a 2nd round pick. All three are playing in the High A California League this year. Here are their stats:

AB AVG OBP 2B 3B HR BB K SB
Jackson 233 .339 .433 16 2 11 41 33 3
Quentin 222 .297 .411 13 1 14 21 30 4
D'Antona 249 .317 .358 18 1 13 16 34 2

Now, you have to keep in mind that the California League is a hitters league, and Lancaster, where these three play is a definite hitters park. Even so, these numbers are consistently good. What I noticed is that all three players have very similar numbers except for walks. Jackson's walk rate is excellent, Quentin's is average, and D'Antona's is below average, but not terrible. All three have almost the same number of strikeouts, and the number is very acceptable.

For those people who believe plate discipline is a good predictor of future success, these numbers would indicate that Jackson will ultimately be the best player, but I think they can all be good players for Arizona in a few years.

2004-06-14T20:52:00.000-07:00

Franklin Gutierrez - OF, Indians

Gutierrez is a former Dodger prospect who was one of two players the Indians received for Milton Bradley. Gutierrez made his mark last year when he hit 24 HR at age 20 between high A and AA (mostly at high A). His negative from last year was a walk-to-strikeout rate of 46/131 = .35.

This year at AA, Gutierrez is hitting .295, but with only 3 HR. This is a little disappointing, but he has hit 24 doubles, which is a good sign that he is still driving the ball. Disturbingly his walk-to-strikeout rate this year is 19/67 = .28 which is worse than last year. I like Gutierrez a lot, but I think he definitely needs to improve this number. The good thing for him is that he is still young, and the Indians have a lot of young outfielders, so I don't think they will be tempted to rush him until he is ready. I think he has a good future, but has some things to work on first.

2004-06-14T19:31:00.000-07:00

Dioner Navarro - C, Yankees

Navarro exploded on to the scene last year when he excelled in High A at age 19, then did even better when he was promoted to AA at mid-season. This year he is back at AA, and he is still young for that league at age 20.

This happens to be a good time to compare Navarro's performance this year with last year because he has almost the same number of AB now that he had in high A last year. Here is the comparison:

AB AVG OBP 2B 3B HR BB K BB/K
93 208 .341 .388 15 0 4 18 26 .69
94 210 .281 .368 10 1 3 29 37 .78

The obvious difference is that his average has dropped from last year, but that is somewhat made up for by more walks this year. Navarro has also struck out more than last year, but his walk-to-strikeout rate has actually improved, which is a good sign. Before looking up the stats I was under the impression that Navarro's power was down this year. It is down a little, but not much as I thought.

The biggest negative I see is that Navarro really hasn't taken a step forward from last year in his second look at AA. This may mean that was playing over his head last year. Still, for a 20 year-old (as far as we know) in AA these are solid numbers. Navarro is quite small at 5-10, so he may never hit for a lot of power. I think he has a good future though.

2004-06-14T19:07:00.000-07:00

Lastings Milledge - OF, Mets

Milledge started the season late because he broke his hand in spring training. He is a tools type player who was the 12th pick last year out of high school. He apparently dropped slightly due to some character concerns. I have been reading that he is off to a good start, so I decided to check out his stats. Here they are:

92 AB, .315 AVG, .360 OBP, 8 2B, 1 3B, 4 HR, 3 BB, 20 K, 5 SB

In some respects he is doing well, hitting .315 with some doubles and homeruns. What concerns me though is only 3 walks and 20 strikeouts. That is something to watch as the season progresses. 20 strikeouts in 92 AB isn't too bad, but I would definitely like to see more walks.

It's still early in his season, so maybe his strike zone judgment will improve, but it is something I would monitor.

2004-06-13T20:34:00.000-07:00

Ian Stewart - 3B, Rockies
Eric Duncan - 3B, Yankees
Matt Moses - 3B, Twins

Stewart, Moses and Duncan were all high school third basemen who were drafted last year. I thought it would be interesting to compare how each of them are currently doing. They are all currently at the same level (Low A).

Here are their stats so far:

Stewart: 231 AB, .286 AVG, .365 OBP, 10 2B, 3 3B, 14 HR, 28 BB, 57 K, 9 SB, 16 E
Duncan: 215 AB, .284 AVG, .381 OBP, 16 2B, 1 3B, 10 HR, 31 BB, 56 K, 6 SB, 16 E
Moses: 76 AB, .237 AVG, .333 OBP, 7 2B, 0 3B, 3 HR, 10 BB, 15 K, 0 SB, 6 E

Stewart and Duncan have almost identical numbers. Stewart has a few more HR, but they both have 27 extra base hits. Duncan has walked slightly more, giving him a slightly better OBP, but their plate discipline is very comparable.

Moses has been out with a bad back, so he doesn't have a large sample size to work with. His average is well below the other two, but his other numbers look good in comparison. Multiplying his numbers by 3, would extrapolate his AB to a range similar to the others:

228 AB, 21 2B, 0 3B, 9 HR, 30 BB, 45 K, 18 E

This shows that his power compares well with Stewart and Duncan. Walks are also comparable, but Moses would have fewer strikeouts than the other two. All three have a similar number of errors which is quite high. None of them are known for their defense and they may end up at different positions.

To conclude: All three have shown some potential. Moses needs to return healthy and get his average up, but he compares well in the other categories. Stewart has the edge in that barring a trade he will be playing in Coors field someday. Duncan has the problem of getting into the Yankees lineup if he is not traded. All in all a promising start. I will revisit these three later in the season to see how they are doing.

2004-06-13T19:53:00.000-07:00

David Wright - 3B, Mets

David Wright has nothing left to prove at AA, and it looks like the Mets agree because he has been promoted to AAA.

Wright's final AA numbers are as follows:

223 AB, .363 AVG, .467 OBP, 27 2B, 10 HR, 39 BB, 41 K, 20 SB

I have read a lot about Wright, and I have not read a single bad thing about him. The only criticism of him last year was that he worked so hard before the games that he sometimes wore himself out.

Wright will now be playing at Norfolk which is hometown, so this will be a good test to see how he handles the pressure and distractions of playing in front of family and friends. Sometimes success at one level does not immediately translate into success at the next level, so there is no guarantee Wright will have success at AAA right away. However, I am confident that he will do well eventually. Unless he struggles at AAA, I can see him being called up to the Mets no later than September.

2004-06-13T19:28:00.000-07:00

Daric Barton - C, St. Louis

Daric Barton is off to a stunning start. He is a 19 year-old catcher who was the Cardinals first round pick in 2003. Barton had a solid year last year, but some people questioned whether he would remain at catcher long-term.

This year Barton started about a month late because he was still recovering from elbow surgery, but has certainly made up for lost time. In 90 AB so far, Barton is hitting .422 with an OBP of over .535. This includes 8 HR, 6 doubles, 21 BB and only 13 K. How long can Barton keep this up.

There is absolutely nothing to dislike about Barton right now, especially if he is able to remain at catcher.

2004-06-10T21:07:00.000-07:00

Julio Pimentel - P, Dodgers

Pimentel has had a decent but unspectacular season in Low A, but not bad considering he is 18 and only recently started pitching.

Tonight, however was a different story. Pimentel pitched a 7 inning complete game, giving up 3 hits and 1 walk while striking out a remarkable 16. It will be interesting to see what he does in the second half of the season.

2004-06-10T20:53:00.000-07:00

Jason Kubel - OF, Twins

Kubel is really starting to make a name for himself as a prospect. After excelling in AA, Kubel was promoted to AAA and picked up where he left off. In fact, after 19 games in AAA, his batting average (.377) was the same as it was in AA. So far in 77 AAA AB, he has 10 doubles and 1 HR. He has walked 4 times, which is a little low, but he has only struck out twice. As a 22 year-old it appears he could be ready for the majors soon. His only problem right now is that he plays for the twins, who have an excess of outfielders. They also seem very reluctant to trade them, so Kubel's rise to the majors may not be as fast as it could be. Regardless, once he gets there I expect him to be a good player.

2004-04-30T20:13:00.000-07:00

Grady Sizemore - OF, Indians

Grady Sizemore has made up a lot of ground in just two games. Two days ago he was hitting .205. Now, after a 4-5 game followed by a 3-4 game he is hitting .273. Sizemore's slow start was disappointing because he was coming off a great spring training. However, at the end of spring training he had a stomach virus which caused him to lose 15 pounds. This took away the momentum he had built up in the spring, and likely contributed to his slow start.

2004-04-23T21:57:00.000-07:00

Kylle Denney - P, Indians

Kyle Denney is old for a prospect, but he is pitching very well at Buffalo. The Indians have three solid young starters, but their 4th and 5th starters are just roster fillers and have struggled. Jeremy Guthrie has also struggled at AA, so if Denney continues to pitch well I could see him getting a chance with the Indians later this year.

2004-04-23T06:27:00.000-07:00

JR House - C, Pirates

JR House is hot right now. He has hit a homerun in each of the last three games, for a total of four on the season. He is working his way back to being a solid prospect after having several years wrecked by injury. He needs to hit, because if he is to make it to the majors, it will be his bat that gets him there. He may never make it as a catcher, though. He was never great defensively, and the development time he lost may make it impossible for him to be an everyday catcher. House has played mostly catcher so far this year, but he has also played three games in the outfield.

2004-04-21T19:56:00.000-07:00

Adam Miller - P, Indians

Adam Miller has had an excellent start to the season. He was a 1st round supplemental pick for the Indians last year. His numbers in rookie league were not great, but scouts obviously saw something, because he ranked higher than that in the preseason. (Indians # 9 prospect in BA, Grade B from John Sickels). So far this season the scouts have been proven right. His stats for his first three starts are: 16 IP, 5 H, 4 BB, 21K. If he keeps going at this pace, the only thing that could hold him up is an injury. He did have a sore shoulder last year. Hopefully this will not be a long-term concern.

2004-04-20T21:28:00.000-07:00

Adriano Rosario - P, Diamondbacks

Looking at Rosario's stats so far, they look OK but not spectacular: 22H, 4BB, and 15K in 22 2/3 IP. However, you have to keep in mind that Rosario is still 18 and is in AA. He will not turn 19 until May. He pitched quite well last year in Low-A, but surprisingly skipped a level to open this year. Rosario is at least holding his own, and tonight had his best start so far: 5H, 1 BB and 8K in 7 1/3 IP.

2004-04-19T20:23:00.000-07:00

Julio Pimentel - P, Dodgers

Julio Pimentel is an interesting name to follow. He was not on the radar screen at all before this season. He is 18 and will not turn 19 until December. Last year he pitched in the Dominican Summer League. He has pitched well twice now, giving up 9 hits and 2 walks in 11 IP, while striking out 11. Whether he keeps this up who knows, but so far so good.

2004-04-18T21:21:00.000-07:00

Jason Kubel - OF, Twins

Jason Kubel isn't talked about too much, but he puts up very good numbers each year. He consistently hits close to .300, walks a decent amount and doesn't strike out much. He also has shown a little power. This year he is in AA and he is hitting close to .400 so far. He also has several doubles and a couple of homeruns. His biggest problem will be finding a place for him in the Twins outfield a couple of years from now. A trade may be the best thing for him. He has a strong enough arm to play right field, and I see him developing into a solid player.

2004-04-18T20:54:00.000-07:00

Felix Hernandez - P, Mariners

Is there any more amazing minor leaguer right now than Felix Hernandez? Of course, as with any Latin American player, there is some uncertainty regarding his true age, but according to his official age he turned 18 on April 8th. Hernandez made two starts in the Low A Midwest League late last year, and while he was excellent there, I think most people thought he would go back there to begin the year. Instead he was sent to the High A California League. Part of the reason for this move is that the Mariners did not want him to be pitching in cold weather. This makes perfect sense to me, but I was wondering if he would struggle at first in skipping a level. Well, in his two starts so far he has been dominating, giving up 5 hits and 4 walks in 10 1/3 innings. He also has 16 strikeouts. If he keeps this up, I could see him in AA later this year and in the majors by age 20. I worry about the possibility of injury, but if he stays healthy the sky is the limit for him.

2004-04-18T20:16:00.000-07:00

David Wright - 3B, Mets

David Wright is off to a great start. He has an amazing 10 doubles so far. He has cooled down a little in the last few days and he is prone to slumps so it will be interesting to see what happens in the next couple of months. Despite being a top prospect he has not hit over .270 since he was in rookie league. He always walks a lot however, which helps his OBP. So far that trend is continuing with 5 BB and 6 K in 39 AB. An interesting bonus with Wright is that he usually steals close to 20 bases which is fairly unusual for a thirdbaseman. I see that total going down once he reaches the majors, but I still expect him to steal more bases than a lot of thirdbasemen. He is just a good all-around player. He is not dominant in any area, but he is good in all areas.

2004-03-21T20:18:00.000-08:00

I will be giving my opinions on minor league baseball players periodically.