Minor League Baseball Players

Jeremy Brown - C, As

Jeremy Brown may be the most famous of the original Moneyball players, as he was heavily featured in that book. His career has been a disappointment so far, however.

After Brown's first year, I was a big fan of his. He got most of his at-bats in the California League, where he hit .310 with an OBP of .444. He hit 10 HR and had 40 BB and 44 K in 187 AB.

Last year he moved up to AA, and things began to deteriorate slightly. He had slightly more AB (233) and hit fewer HR (10). His BB/K ratio was still good at 37/41, but his average dipped to .275. The high number of walks did help his OBP reach .388 however.

So far this year, things are getting worse still. He is back at AA. I would expect to see some improvement over last year, but he is going in the opposite direction. After 218 AB (almost the same number as last year), he is hitting .220 with only 3 HR. Again is B/K ratio is still pretty good at 32/43, but I just don't like the direction his numbers are going.

I think Brown needs to get things turned around if he wants to be a Moneyball success story.

Felix Hernandez - P, Mariners
Greg Miller - P, Dodgers

Felix Hernandez has just been promoted to AA. This is a bold move to put an 18-year-old in AA, but Hernandez pitched extremely well in high A. I think an interesting comparison would be between Hernandez and Greg Miller of the Dodgers. Miller also started last year in high A at age 18 and was promoted to AA at mid-season.

Before I get to the numbers, I should point out a couple of things. First, when comparing numbers, keep in mind that Miller was pitching in the Florida State League which is a notorious pitchers league, and Hernandez was pitching in the California League which is a hitters league. Also, when Miller started last year in high A he had been 18 since the previous November. Hernandez turned 18 this April. So when staring in high A, Hernandez was about 5 months younger than Miller. Not a big deal, but worth mentioning. Of course, I have more confidence that Miller's age is accurate than I do for Hernandez. With that said, here are Miller's high A numbers from last year and Hernandez' number for this year.

Miller : IP: 116, ERA: 2.49 H: 103 BB: 41 K: 111 H+BB/IP: 1.24 K/IP: .96
Hernandez: IP: 92, ERA: 2.74 H: 85 BB: 26 K: 114 H+BB/IP: 1.21 K/IP: 1.24

If you look at the ratios, Hernandez' numbers are better than Miller's were, especially when you factor in the leagues they each played in. Now, when Miller was promoted to AA he put up exceptional numbers, even better than before he was promoted. I will be watching Hernandez closely to see how he does in AA. Unfortunately Miller has been hurt and he has not pitched yet this year. It does not appear to be a long-term concern, but the Dodgers are obviously being cautious with him. Hopefully Hernandez will stay healthy, and I will be able to compare these two again. I think you could make the case that they could be the two best pitching prospects in baseball if they stay healthy.

Bucky Jacobsen - DH/1B, Mariners

Bucky Jacobsen is not a traditional prospect because he is 28 years-old. I usually don't pay much attention to this type of player, but Jacobsen is having a great year at AAA. He has hit 24 HR and 20 doubles. He is also hitting .331 with an OBP of .423. His strikeouts are a little high at 71, especially for an older player.

Seattle may be a team in a transition in the next year, so there will likely be some open positions. Will they give Jacobsen a chance, or will he become stuck as a good AAA player and a major league backup? One problem for him to overcome is that he is mostly a DH, which limits the positions he can play.

Jacobsen is not the type of player I take an interest in, but I know some people like to take a chance on this type if player.

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Carlos Gomez - OF, Mets

Carlos Gomez is playing for Kingsport in the Appalachian League. He is 18 years-old and he is off to a good start. He is hitting .333 with a double, triple, and HR. There is some confusion about his age. On the Kingsport roster on minorleaguebaseball.com he is listed as age 22. However, on a Mets fan site that has been following him closely, he is listed as age 18. Here is the link:

Carlos Gomez

Obviously, at this stage of his career, a 4 year age difference is huge, and if he does end up being 22 I will lose interest in him. However, he looks much closer to 18 than 22, so I will assume 18 is the correct age.

There is always a risk with Latin-American players (especially the Dominican Republic)that they are older than their listed age. It is just a risk you have to accept if you use age as a major criteria in picking prospects.

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Jesus Guzman - 3B, Mariners

Jesus Guzman is an interesting player. He just turned 20 on June 14th, so he has been playing for a while as a 19-year-old in the high A California League, and posting good numbers. Guzman played in the Venezuelan League in 2003, and started the season in extended spring training. I am assuming he was headed for a rookie league, but when Inland Empire had injuries to several infielders, he was brought up. I imagine this was meant as only a short-term stay for Guzman, but he has played so well it was hard for the Mariners to send him down.

His stats this season are as follows:

AB: 182: AVG: .297 OBP: .402 2B: 14 3B: 1 HR: 3 BB: 28 K: 47 SB: 5

These are excellent numbers for a 19-year-old straight from the Venezuelan League. If he remains at 3B, it will be more important for him to show a little power, but he has a fairly high number of doubles which is a good sign. He definitely is someone to watch.

Lou Palmisano - C, Brewers

Lou Palmisano is a player I was looking at closely this spring. He is supposed to be a good defensive catcher, and these are his numbers from last year:

AB AVG OBP 2B 3B HR BB K
174 .391 .458 13 2 6 18 29

My only concern about him was that he was playing in the Pioneer League at age 21, which I consider just a little old for that league. So, I was very interested to see how he did this year. He is playing in the Midwest League. Here are his numbers so far:

AB AVG OBP 2B 3B HR BB K
227 .308 .388 12 2 3 22 52

For the most part Palmisano's numbers are not as good as last year. His walk rate is about the same (.1 BB/AB), but his strikeouts are up a little and his power is slightly down. His average is good, but not as good as last year. Again, the biggest negative is that he is a little old for the Midwest League at age 22. At that age, I would either like to see him in High-A, or putting up better numbers in Low A. His year so far is a slight disappointment, but by no means a bust.

Luis Soto - SS, Red Sox
Juan Rivera - SS, Dodgers

Here is a quick update on Soto and Rivera. They are both playing in the GCL. The GCL games started today. Soto was 0-4 and Rivera was 2-5 with a double.

By the way, so far I have only been able to find the GCL box scores at espn.com. Generally I think that minorleaguebaseabll.com gets box scores the fastest, but not so far with the GCL.

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Asdrubal Cabrera - SS, Mariners
Luis Soto - SS, Red Sox
Juan Rivera - SS, Dodgers

One thing that I find fun this time of year, is looking for very young players in the rookie and short-season leagues. I play in a fantasy league with 20 player minor league rosters and many owners who follow minor leaguers closely, so almost every god minor leaguer at higher levels is already taken. I try to find players before anyone has heard if them. It is a high risk strategy, but last year this strategy yielded Felix Hernandez. (Note to all Donut League owners, I have already picked up all these players, so you are out of look.)

I don't know much at all about any of these players, but they are worth following to see if they pan out. Here is what I know about each of these players:

Asdrubal Cabrera - I came across this name while I was looking for young players in the Northwest League. Cabrera is a Venezuelan playing for Everett. His birthdate is 11/13/1985 which means he will be 18 for this entire season. Cabrera is playing in the Northwest League which is a short-season A league. Teams tend to send college players to the NW League, so the average age is higher than the rookie leagues. Anytime an 18-year-old succeeds in the NW League, he should be noticed. Anyway, Cabrera has played two games so far, and here are his numbers:

Game 1 (6/18): 2-4, 2B, 0 BB, 0 K
Game 2 (6/19): 3-4, 3B, 0 BB, 0 K

So, after two games he is hitting .625 with a double and triple. Obviously two games is way too small a sample to mean anything, but if you are interested in a deep sleeper check him out.

Luis Soto - Soto hasn't played yet. I am assuming he will be in the Gulf Coast League, but I have not found the GCL rosters yet. Despite not playing yet, Soto did make the Baseball America top 30 for the Red Sox this year, ranking 22. Soto is a Dominican whose birthdate is 12/7/85, almost the same age as Cabrera. According to BA, Soto has strong physical tools, and a mature approach. Hopefully Soto will be in the GCL, so I can follow him once the games start.

Luis Rivera - Rivera seems to be the biggest gamble of all. Rivera was born on 3/17/87, so he turned 17 this spring. He did, however, rank #28 for the Dodgers in BA. Like Soto, Rivera is also from the Dominican Republic. He was signed by the same scout that signed Rafael Furcal. My guess is he will currently be more advanced defensively than offensively, and I am not even sure that he will be in the GCL.

There are no guarantees with any of these players. There ages may not even be accurate, but I will have fun following them and even if one of the three becomes a good prospect, I will be happy.

Dallas McPherson - 3B, Angels
David Wright - 3B, Mets
Andy Marte - 3B, Braves

Now that David Wright has been promote to AAA, I thought it would be a good time to compare some of the top third basemen who are closer to the majors.

Here are the stats so far this year for these three:

Name Age Level AB AVG OBP 2B 3B HR BB K SB
McPherson 23 AA 258 .322 .406 17 6 20 34 72 6
Wright 21 AA 223 .363 .467 27 0 10 39 41 20
Marte 20 AA 201 .264 .338 18 1 11 21 62 0

All three have put up numbers, but you also have to consider their ages while playing at the same level. McPherson has put up the best power numbers, but he is two years older than Wright and three years older than Marte. Wright has shown the best plate discipline. Also, from what I have read, Wright is the best defensively. Another positive for Wright is 20 SB. He is not supposed to be particularly fast, but has a knack for stealing bases. I don't expect him to steal a lot of bases in the majors, but he probably will steal more than the average thirdbaseman.

Out of these three prospects, I like Wright the best, followed closely by Marte, then McPherson. I'm sure some people like Marte the best, and he may have a higher upside than Wright, but I feel Wright is the more complete player.

Matt Cain - P, Giants

Matt Cain has just been promoted from High A to AA. Cain is 19 and will not turn 20 until October, so he is definitely on the fast track now.

Cain's numbers in the California League were excellent, so he definitely deserved the promotion. Here are his stats for this year:

IP: 72.2, ERA: 1.86 H: 58, BB: 17, K: 89

Cain throws hard and has a good curveball, so he has a lot of potential. I always find mid-season promotions interesting. It is a challenge for the player, and it shows whether they were really ready to move up. I will be very interested to see how Cain does. If he does well in AA at age 19, his future could be very bright.

Conor Jackson - OF, Diamondbacks
Carlos Quentin - OF, Diamondbacks
Jamie D'Antona - 3B, Diamondbacks

It looks like Arizona had a really good draft last year. Jackson and Quentin were 1st round picks (19 and 29 respectively) and D'Antona was a 2nd round pick. All three are playing in the High A California League this year. Here are their stats:

AB AVG OBP 2B 3B HR BB K SB
Jackson 233 .339 .433 16 2 11 41 33 3
Quentin 222 .297 .411 13 1 14 21 30 4
D'Antona 249 .317 .358 18 1 13 16 34 2

Now, you have to keep in mind that the California League is a hitters league, and Lancaster, where these three play is a definite hitters park. Even so, these numbers are consistently good. What I noticed is that all three players have very similar numbers except for walks. Jackson's walk rate is excellent, Quentin's is average, and D'Antona's is below average, but not terrible. All three have almost the same number of strikeouts, and the number is very acceptable.

For those people who believe plate discipline is a good predictor of future success, these numbers would indicate that Jackson will ultimately be the best player, but I think they can all be good players for Arizona in a few years.

Franklin Gutierrez - OF, Indians

Gutierrez is a former Dodger prospect who was one of two players the Indians received for Milton Bradley. Gutierrez made his mark last year when he hit 24 HR at age 20 between high A and AA (mostly at high A). His negative from last year was a walk-to-strikeout rate of 46/131 = .35.

This year at AA, Gutierrez is hitting .295, but with only 3 HR. This is a little disappointing, but he has hit 24 doubles, which is a good sign that he is still driving the ball. Disturbingly his walk-to-strikeout rate this year is 19/67 = .28 which is worse than last year. I like Gutierrez a lot, but I think he definitely needs to improve this number. The good thing for him is that he is still young, and the Indians have a lot of young outfielders, so I don't think they will be tempted to rush him until he is ready. I think he has a good future, but has some things to work on first.

Dioner Navarro - C, Yankees

Navarro exploded on to the scene last year when he excelled in High A at age 19, then did even better when he was promoted to AA at mid-season. This year he is back at AA, and he is still young for that league at age 20.

This happens to be a good time to compare Navarro's performance this year with last year because he has almost the same number of AB now that he had in high A last year. Here is the comparison:

AB AVG OBP 2B 3B HR BB K BB/K
93 208 .341 .388 15 0 4 18 26 .69
94 210 .281 .368 10 1 3 29 37 .78

The obvious difference is that his average has dropped from last year, but that is somewhat made up for by more walks this year. Navarro has also struck out more than last year, but his walk-to-strikeout rate has actually improved, which is a good sign. Before looking up the stats I was under the impression that Navarro's power was down this year. It is down a little, but not much as I thought.

The biggest negative I see is that Navarro really hasn't taken a step forward from last year in his second look at AA. This may mean that was playing over his head last year. Still, for a 20 year-old (as far as we know) in AA these are solid numbers. Navarro is quite small at 5-10, so he may never hit for a lot of power. I think he has a good future though.

Lastings Milledge - OF, Mets

Milledge started the season late because he broke his hand in spring training. He is a tools type player who was the 12th pick last year out of high school. He apparently dropped slightly due to some character concerns. I have been reading that he is off to a good start, so I decided to check out his stats. Here they are:

92 AB, .315 AVG, .360 OBP, 8 2B, 1 3B, 4 HR, 3 BB, 20 K, 5 SB

In some respects he is doing well, hitting .315 with some doubles and homeruns. What concerns me though is only 3 walks and 20 strikeouts. That is something to watch as the season progresses. 20 strikeouts in 92 AB isn't too bad, but I would definitely like to see more walks.

It's still early in his season, so maybe his strike zone judgment will improve, but it is something I would monitor.

Ian Stewart - 3B, Rockies
Eric Duncan - 3B, Yankees
Matt Moses - 3B, Twins

Stewart, Moses and Duncan were all high school third basemen who were drafted last year. I thought it would be interesting to compare how each of them are currently doing. They are all currently at the same level (Low A).

Here are their stats so far:

Stewart: 231 AB, .286 AVG, .365 OBP, 10 2B, 3 3B, 14 HR, 28 BB, 57 K, 9 SB, 16 E
Duncan: 215 AB, .284 AVG, .381 OBP, 16 2B, 1 3B, 10 HR, 31 BB, 56 K, 6 SB, 16 E
Moses: 76 AB, .237 AVG, .333 OBP, 7 2B, 0 3B, 3 HR, 10 BB, 15 K, 0 SB, 6 E

Stewart and Duncan have almost identical numbers. Stewart has a few more HR, but they both have 27 extra base hits. Duncan has walked slightly more, giving him a slightly better OBP, but their plate discipline is very comparable.

Moses has been out with a bad back, so he doesn't have a large sample size to work with. His average is well below the other two, but his other numbers look good in comparison. Multiplying his numbers by 3, would extrapolate his AB to a range similar to the others:

228 AB, 21 2B, 0 3B, 9 HR, 30 BB, 45 K, 18 E

This shows that his power compares well with Stewart and Duncan. Walks are also comparable, but Moses would have fewer strikeouts than the other two. All three have a similar number of errors which is quite high. None of them are known for their defense and they may end up at different positions.

To conclude: All three have shown some potential. Moses needs to return healthy and get his average up, but he compares well in the other categories. Stewart has the edge in that barring a trade he will be playing in Coors field someday. Duncan has the problem of getting into the Yankees lineup if he is not traded. All in all a promising start. I will revisit these three later in the season to see how they are doing.

David Wright - 3B, Mets

David Wright has nothing left to prove at AA, and it looks like the Mets agree because he has been promoted to AAA.

Wright's final AA numbers are as follows:

223 AB, .363 AVG, .467 OBP, 27 2B, 10 HR, 39 BB, 41 K, 20 SB

I have read a lot about Wright, and I have not read a single bad thing about him. The only criticism of him last year was that he worked so hard before the games that he sometimes wore himself out.

Wright will now be playing at Norfolk which is hometown, so this will be a good test to see how he handles the pressure and distractions of playing in front of family and friends. Sometimes success at one level does not immediately translate into success at the next level, so there is no guarantee Wright will have success at AAA right away. However, I am confident that he will do well eventually. Unless he struggles at AAA, I can see him being called up to the Mets no later than September.

Daric Barton - C, St. Louis

Daric Barton is off to a stunning start. He is a 19 year-old catcher who was the Cardinals first round pick in 2003. Barton had a solid year last year, but some people questioned whether he would remain at catcher long-term.

This year Barton started about a month late because he was still recovering from elbow surgery, but has certainly made up for lost time. In 90 AB so far, Barton is hitting .422 with an OBP of over .535. This includes 8 HR, 6 doubles, 21 BB and only 13 K. How long can Barton keep this up.

There is absolutely nothing to dislike about Barton right now, especially if he is able to remain at catcher.

Julio Pimentel - P, Dodgers

Pimentel has had a decent but unspectacular season in Low A, but not bad considering he is 18 and only recently started pitching.

Tonight, however was a different story. Pimentel pitched a 7 inning complete game, giving up 3 hits and 1 walk while striking out a remarkable 16. It will be interesting to see what he does in the second half of the season.

Jason Kubel - OF, Twins

Kubel is really starting to make a name for himself as a prospect. After excelling in AA, Kubel was promoted to AAA and picked up where he left off. In fact, after 19 games in AAA, his batting average (.377) was the same as it was in AA. So far in 77 AAA AB, he has 10 doubles and 1 HR. He has walked 4 times, which is a little low, but he has only struck out twice. As a 22 year-old it appears he could be ready for the majors soon. His only problem right now is that he plays for the twins, who have an excess of outfielders. They also seem very reluctant to trade them, so Kubel's rise to the majors may not be as fast as it could be. Regardless, once he gets there I expect him to be a good player.